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Last week, I was honored to attend my first Democratic National Convention in Chicago. Tens of thousands of people who care about the future of our country came together to paint a powerful, positive vision of America, and the energy inside the convention hall was palpable and inspiring. The optimism I saw was a stark contrast to the mood that dominated the party barely a month ago, when the consensus view was that Democrats were sleepwalking into a second Trump term before Joe Biden stepped aside as the nominee and endorsed Kamala Harris.
So how did Democrats turn things around? And what do we need to do over the next ten weeks to see the election through? Here are some of my takeaways from the DNC that get at both of those questions.
DEMOCRATS ARE BEHAVING LIKE A REAL POLITICAL PARTY
The goal of a political party is twofold: (1) winning elections (2) to implement policy ideas. In a well-functioning party, that goal is larger than any one person, and President Joe Biden’s decision to pass the torch to Kamala Harris was both selfless and correct, as it gave Democrats a better chance to win in November and continue to build upon his legislative achievements from the last four years. Since then, the party has been on a roll, continuing to make strategic decisions with a keen understanding of the national political landscape and what it will take to keep the White House.
Last month, Democrats were on track to lose the presidential election, and the only way to significantly alter the dynamics of the race was by adopting a “high variance” strategy—taking big risks and hoping that the upside justified the downsides. The extraordinary decision by a sitting president to step aside as the party’s nominee merely weeks before the convention was precisely such a risk, but it paid off better than almost anyone could have predicted.
Kamala Harris quickly pulled even in the polls, dramatically improved her favorability rating as a candidate, and swiftly raised unheard-of amounts of money. Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign was caught flat-footed, while Trump himself has grown increasingly unhinged.
The choice of Tim Walz as a running mate is another example of a decision made by a party intent on winning and getting things done. Not only are his favorability ratings the highest of anyone on either presidential ticket, but his track record as Governor of Minnesota also speaks to an encouraging governing philosophy:
With only a one-seat majority in the legislature, Walz passed an incredibly ambitious, popular progressive agenda to help everyday Minnesotans, including free breakfasts and lunches for all Minnesota students, tax cuts for working families and the middle class, and increasing access to affordable housing. (This one-seat majority was made possible by Sen. Aric Putnam, who was the only Democrat to flip a red seat in the state senate in 2020 with the help of an all-star Bluebonnet team.) Having Walz on the ticket is an indication that this revitalized Democratic party is serious about improving the lives of all Americans when we win in November.
DEMOCRATS ARE RECLAIMING THE MOST ESTEEMED AMERICAN VALUES
The Republican party claims they want small government while also wanting to control the most intimate aspects of Americans’ lives; it claims to love our country but promotes its goals through politics of resentment, bitterness, and fearmongering; and it claims to respect the Constitution but has willingly enabled Trump’s efforts to subvert our democracy. The Harris campaign has decided to go on offense and highlight this hypocrisy head-on by loudly and proudly reclaiming core American values such as freedom, patriotism, and putting country above self.
In her acceptance speech, Kamala Harris emphatically enumerated several of the freedoms she would fight for as President: the freedom to make personal decisions about your body and your family, the freedom to live safe from gun violence, the freedom to love who you love, the freedom to breathe clean air and drink clean water, and the freedom to vote. Her messaging binds core Democratic policy goals—reproductive freedom, gun safety, LGBTQ+ rights, climate action, and protecting democracy—with the American ideal of liberty. Tim Walz captures this sentiment perfectly with his now-famous catchphrase:
Furthermore, Democrats have come to embrace patriotism not as a vehicle for nationalism, as the far-right does, but rather as a love for America that compels us to strive to make life better for our compatriots. Being patriotic means being proud of and fighting for the freedoms mentioned above; it means being proud of “our heritage as a nation of immigrants” and believing in a pluralistic vision of America where everyone is welcome; and it means being proud of placing the interests of our country above those of the party or any one individual, as Joe Biden did by declining the nomination and Kamala Harris continues to do by focusing on the issues that matter to voters rather than on the historic nature of her candidacy.
Incredibly, it was the Democrats who owned the American flag imagery and the “USA” chants and placards at their convention. The Democratic roll call was both an excellent display of the diversity of our country and a powerful reminder that the Union is greater than the sum of its parts. For me, one of the most moving moments of the night came when two West Virginia delegates from vastly different walks of life cast their votes for Kamala Harris together because it was a joyful showcase of what makes us unique without dividing us. That’s the kind of patriotism Democrats are espousing, and that’s what winning in November is all about.
WE STILL HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO, BUT DEMOCRATS HAVE THE TALENT AND TECHNOLOGY NEEDED TO WIN
While we're in a better spot today than we were in July, we cannot be complacent. This election is still extremely close and will come down to a handful of votes in key swing states.
Thankfully, the political landscape has shifted drastically since 2016 as Democrats used the last two cycles to invest heavily in the people and technology that power our campaigns. We at Bluebonnet Data are working diligently to leverage these changes to win at every level of the ballot:
New tech & innovative tactics: Investors like Higher Ground Labs funded tools like Impactive, Mobilize, Quiller, and more that have become essential to running modern political campaigns. This technology has allowed us to text and call voters at scale, distribute digital and social media ads, and reach voters in new and creative ways. Organizations like The Analyst Institute have also conducted quantitative research to identify the highest-impact tactics, bringing a Moneyball approach to campaign strategy.
Shared infrastructure & data collection: From IT fundamentals to data warehousing, the DNC Tech Team and organizations like The Movement Cooperative and the Community Tech Alliance have built better shared technical infrastructure at scale. Initiatives like the Democratic Data Exchange have also significantly expanded the sophistication of political data available to Democrats, while analytics firms like Deck, Indigo/Matchbook, Blue Rose Research, and Change Research have improved the accuracy and availability of voter targeting metrics and district analyses.
Expanded data & tech talent: Building, innovating, deploying, and improving technology requires people power. Bluebonnet and peer organizations like DigiDems, Generation Data, and re:Power have significantly broadened the pipeline and deepened the pool of data and tech talent in Democratic politics.
With just over two months to go until election day, Bluebonnet Data is proud to have deployed more than 200 fellows to support progressive campaigns and organizations across the country this year. What's more, over 250 of our fellowship alumni now work full-time for progressive causes, including the Harris campaign, state Democratic parties, and down-ballot races.
These efforts help us win majorities in Congress and state legislatures, while also bolstering our chances to win the White House through the reverse coattails effect. For example, in 2020 we supported the candidate in Wisconsin's very red 5th congressional district with bespoke targeting of moderate voters who could be persuaded to vote for Biden after voting for Trump in 2016. While Republicans held onto the congressional seat itself, that single district accounted for a swing of nearly 70,000 votes toward Democrats, helping Joe Biden win the entire state by just over 20,000 votes.
This year, there will be countless cases just like this one, and you can make a difference in our ability to identify and support these campaigns. If you'd like to invest in the present and future of the progressive movement, you can do so by donating to Bluebonnet—your donations help us recruit and train hundreds of Bluebonnet fellows to support dozens of campaigns and causes across the country each year. In the meantime, we'll be doing everything we can to help Kamala Harris, Tim Walz, and Democrats up and down the ballot win their elections in order to burn political capital and improve people's lives.
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